In 1992, Colorado passed an anti-gay amendment to the state Constitution. In 1993, President Bill Clinton tried to loosen the statutes on gays in the military. His effort was stymied.
Americans were not supportive of gay rights in 1992 and are now:
• 48% say gay and lesbian relations between consenting adults should be legal (1992)
• 69% say relations should be legal today
In 1996, Americans were strongly pro-choice and now are barely supportive:
• 56% pro-choice in 1996
• 49% pro-choice today
Americans are highly conflicted on abortion, with 27 percent say it should be legal under any circumstance, 22 percent believe it should be illegal under all circumstances and a majority (50%) believes it should be legal under some circumstances. That is to say local and national authorities can regulate and discourage it. Legal under any circumstance has dropped about 5 to 10 points since 1992 and illegal in all circumstances increase 5 to 9 points.
What is the difference in the two major social issues of the era and the direction they have gone with the American people?
See Gallup polls:
Americans Still Split Along “Pro-Choice,” Pro-Life” Lines
Support for Legal Gay Relations Hits New High
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
Friday, May 27, 2011
Gay Marriage has a Majority
In a new poll, Gallup registers a majority of Americans support gay marriage for the first time. The 53 percent to 45 percent support is the product of a sudden surge of support from Democrats and unaffiliated voters since 2010. Opposition has collapsed from 68 percent in 1996 to a low of 45 percent today. Support has doubled during the same 15 years.
A host of recent actions have influenced public opinion. President Barack Obama has offered gay rights high-profile support and signaled his opposition to gay marriage is soft. Congress, with support from the military brass, changed the rules of “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” in 2010. Also, five states have legalized same-sex marriage with no apparent controversial consequences: Connecticut, Iowa, Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Vermont.
Pew also reports a shift toward acceptance of homosexuality and gay marriage (45% favor to 46%, up from 35% favoring in 2009).
The 9News/Denver Post Debate Frames the Final Two Weeks
There wasn’t much new in the 9News/Denver Post May 23 debate, and it’s unlikely to have changed many minds. But, Chris Romer’s and Michael Hancock’s final strategies were on display.
Hancock remains the nice person and emphasizes his experience in government. He hopes Romer’s attacks will fail. In fact, he intends to use Romer’s high-profile negative campaign as his main final message – Romer lacks character and doesn’t reflect Denver values.
Romer recognizes his favorability is below Hancock’s (in fact, he repeatedly says voters should not consider personality) so he remains aggressive and does not back off his negative attacks. In fact, while defending his controversial advertisement during the debate, he re-attacked Hancock’s pay raise vote.
Romer argues the benefit of having a mayor from outside of city government. He also telegraphed his Hispanic strategy with a high-level defense of in-state tuition for children of undocumented parents and advocating opting out of the new national immigration identification law.
Romer also uses debates to collect and highlight Hancock’s missteps. He pushed on a Hancock’s statement concerning vouchers, which then shortly became a new attack direct mail piece.
Also, Romer offered strong support for educational choice to counter the impression his partnership with James Mejia signaled a drift from the reform agenda.
The two candidates are very close on most issues and, in general, ideology, but different in style. Romer’s campaign has a very deliberate strategy and is very well executed, but if he loses, it will reflect a city that prefers the familiar and the more liberal. His aggressive outsider strategy will have failed to connect with voters.
Hancock remains the nice person and emphasizes his experience in government. He hopes Romer’s attacks will fail. In fact, he intends to use Romer’s high-profile negative campaign as his main final message – Romer lacks character and doesn’t reflect Denver values.
Romer recognizes his favorability is below Hancock’s (in fact, he repeatedly says voters should not consider personality) so he remains aggressive and does not back off his negative attacks. In fact, while defending his controversial advertisement during the debate, he re-attacked Hancock’s pay raise vote.
Romer argues the benefit of having a mayor from outside of city government. He also telegraphed his Hispanic strategy with a high-level defense of in-state tuition for children of undocumented parents and advocating opting out of the new national immigration identification law.
Romer also uses debates to collect and highlight Hancock’s missteps. He pushed on a Hancock’s statement concerning vouchers, which then shortly became a new attack direct mail piece.
Also, Romer offered strong support for educational choice to counter the impression his partnership with James Mejia signaled a drift from the reform agenda.
The two candidates are very close on most issues and, in general, ideology, but different in style. Romer’s campaign has a very deliberate strategy and is very well executed, but if he loses, it will reflect a city that prefers the familiar and the more liberal. His aggressive outsider strategy will have failed to connect with voters.
Thursday, May 26, 2011
Bill Armstrong, Colorado's Senior Republican
Walt Klein, one of the state’s most successful political filmmakers, has produced a first-rate tribute film to former Senator Bill Armstrong.
While Armstrong has been out of office for 20 years, he remains the state’s most respected Republican and most influential behind-the-scenes opinion leader.
Click here to see video
While Armstrong has been out of office for 20 years, he remains the state’s most respected Republican and most influential behind-the-scenes opinion leader.
Click here to see video
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
DPS Reform Will Face a Renewed Test in November
Denver Public Schools (DPS) November board election will host a rematch battle between what has been described as the forces of reform vs. tradition.
The board is divided 4 to 3 in favor of the superintendent’s efforts at reform, mostly holding off an eclectic group trying to tamp down or slow down changes. Some community and Hispanic activists, fueled by the Teachers union money and advice, have kept DPS in a state of considerable tension and conflict for more than two election cycles. And November will provide more of the same.
The current election line up is:
Traditional Faction
Arturo Jimenez, seeking re-election in northwest Denver
Jeanne Kaplan, incumbent, not up
Andrea Merida, incumbent, not up
Reform Faction
Nate Easley Jr., incumbent, northeast Denver, not up
Bruce Hoyt, not running, southeast Denver, open seat
Theresa Peña, not running, at-large, open seat
Mary Seawell, incumbent at-large, not up
Polling data related to DPS shows:
• A 29 percent favorability rating is extremely low
• Voters tend to not know incumbent board school members and have only a vague sense of the issues and different viewpoints
• Turnout in November should be rock bottom
Hispanic and African-American voters were the most harsh judges of DPS, with large percentages giving the schools a poor rating. But, opinion was divided with a third of each group rating the schools “excellent” or “good.”
The battle over control and direction of DPS has spilled over into the mayor’s race. James Mejia may have lost the endorsement of the Denver Post and possibly the general election due to his distancing himself from school reform position. Although both Chris Romer and Michael Hancock were associated with the DPS reform position in the run-off, Romer, with the endorsement of Mejia, has moved away from a stout reform position, especially in northwest Denver, one of the areas up for grabs in the election.
To some extent, the battle between reform and traditional forces reflect a division within the Democratic Party. Social Democrats represent the interest group party and nearly always protect organized labor and tend toward increasing the size and role of government – they tend to be beer drinkers.
The other faction is wine drinkers. It is socially liberal (gay rights, abortion), but it is comfortable with non-union, non-government solutions to social problems. They like competition and accountability.
The DPS election will be characterized by very committed stakeholders representing the two factions. They will recruit candidates and raise funds. Very large amounts of money for a non-paying job will be invested. One of the biggest stakeholders is the Denver Post. Clearly, the publisher has made it one of his interests and the pro-reform editorial page is very aggressive.
See articles:
Education News Colorado – Field taking shape for DPS elections
Denver Post – Denver mayoral candidates line up support in education
The board is divided 4 to 3 in favor of the superintendent’s efforts at reform, mostly holding off an eclectic group trying to tamp down or slow down changes. Some community and Hispanic activists, fueled by the Teachers union money and advice, have kept DPS in a state of considerable tension and conflict for more than two election cycles. And November will provide more of the same.
The current election line up is:
Traditional Faction
Arturo Jimenez, seeking re-election in northwest Denver
Jeanne Kaplan, incumbent, not up
Andrea Merida, incumbent, not up
Reform Faction
Nate Easley Jr., incumbent, northeast Denver, not up
Bruce Hoyt, not running, southeast Denver, open seat
Theresa Peña, not running, at-large, open seat
Mary Seawell, incumbent at-large, not up
Polling data related to DPS shows:
• A 29 percent favorability rating is extremely low
• Voters tend to not know incumbent board school members and have only a vague sense of the issues and different viewpoints
• Turnout in November should be rock bottom
Hispanic and African-American voters were the most harsh judges of DPS, with large percentages giving the schools a poor rating. But, opinion was divided with a third of each group rating the schools “excellent” or “good.”
To some extent, the battle between reform and traditional forces reflect a division within the Democratic Party. Social Democrats represent the interest group party and nearly always protect organized labor and tend toward increasing the size and role of government – they tend to be beer drinkers.
The other faction is wine drinkers. It is socially liberal (gay rights, abortion), but it is comfortable with non-union, non-government solutions to social problems. They like competition and accountability.
The DPS election will be characterized by very committed stakeholders representing the two factions. They will recruit candidates and raise funds. Very large amounts of money for a non-paying job will be invested. One of the biggest stakeholders is the Denver Post. Clearly, the publisher has made it one of his interests and the pro-reform editorial page is very aggressive.
See articles:
Education News Colorado – Field taking shape for DPS elections
Denver Post – Denver mayoral candidates line up support in education
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
Blowback
Chris Romer is learning the cost of going negative in Denver. His 1,000 point TV advertisement attacking Michael Hancock has been nearly universally panned. It caused Gov. John Hickenlooper to demand the reference to him when mayor be removed.
Romer looked defensive when challenged by Hancock about it and appeared both cynical and deceptive when he grudgingly pulled it.
All in all, a poor performance.
It may have been campaigning by the book, and Romer does appear to be gaining, but the tone of his campaign is now his biggest liability.
See Denver Post article: Hancock, Romer argue over whether Hickenlooper asked that ad be pulled
Romer looked defensive when challenged by Hancock about it and appeared both cynical and deceptive when he grudgingly pulled it.
All in all, a poor performance.
It may have been campaigning by the book, and Romer does appear to be gaining, but the tone of his campaign is now his biggest liability.
See Denver Post article: Hancock, Romer argue over whether Hickenlooper asked that ad be pulled
Monday, May 23, 2011
Denver Mayor’s Race Fault Lines
The main faults in the Denver mayor’s race trace along party and ideology lines. A review of the Colorado Pols poll (May 11, 2011) shows:
• 28 point gap among partisans. Unaffiliated 40% to 37% Hancock.
• 60 point difference between liberals and conservatives. One point advantage Romer among moderates.
• Anglos one point difference, Hispanics 6 points to Romer and African-Americans 46 points to Hancock.
• Largest geographic difference, 29 points to Hancock in northeast.
The poll shows there are many moderate and GOP voters who haven’t decided (some may not vote). Hispanic and unaffiliated voters are closely split between the candidates.
• 28 point gap among partisans. Unaffiliated 40% to 37% Hancock.
• 60 point difference between liberals and conservatives. One point advantage Romer among moderates.
• Anglos one point difference, Hispanics 6 points to Romer and African-Americans 46 points to Hancock.
• Largest geographic difference, 29 points to Hancock in northeast.
The poll shows there are many moderate and GOP voters who haven’t decided (some may not vote). Hispanic and unaffiliated voters are closely split between the candidates.
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