Timing is everything in politics. Just as NPR’s Neal Conan and Ken Rudin ended
their discussion of the implications of gay marriage on the presidential
election, President Obama ended his philosophical evolving and political calculating
on the issue of gay marriage and announced he was a supporter. Earlier is probably better for his campaign,
even though the original plan was to get closer to the August national
convention.
For the Democratic Party, it was not a radical move. In the last decade, gay marriage, as the last
and most controversial item on the gay rights agenda, has become a near litmus
test issue for Democrats from major blue states or with national
aspirations.
Civil unions had been a way station for most centrist Democratic
leaders, including the President. But
with public opinion shifting to greater acceptance of gay rights, including an
even divide on gay marriage, the party was about to have a needless platform
demonstration for gay marriage at its national convention in August. It will now be a love fest.
Obama’s campaign and national Democrats hesitated for a long
time on the issue because of its downside risk.
Although polls show half the country supports it, large concentrations
of support are in big blue states.
In the twelve states identified by Gallup as toss-ups (9 of
which are in the New York Times list),
eight have passed constitutional bans on gay marriage, including North
Carolina, site of the Democratic Convention and a state Obama won by less than one
percentage point in 2008.
Joining presidential battleground states are non-toss-up states
with close U.S. Senate races where vulnerable Democratic incumbents or
challengers may not be benefited by the President’s high-profile advocacy, such
as Nevada, Arizona, Montana, Missouri and Virginia.
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