Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign event in Atlanta on July 30, 2024.Photo: Elijah Nouvelage | Afp | Getty Images
Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the Presidential race July 21 on social media. Polls since then have shown Vice President and presumptive nominee Kamala Harris mostly inheriting Biden's polling numbers but with improvement. She's only about 1 point behind in popular vote and is tied in the 5-way third-party average. There is insufficient polling in battleground states as of August 5.
Presidential Polls
Below is a polling average down from RealClear Politics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website, Gallup, and other credible polls.
Several factors appear to be changing in the internal numbers with Harris's entry into the race.
- She's increased Democratic enthusiasm, especially among key constituents, women, voters of color, and voters under 40.
- Third party candidates Robert Kennedy Jr. has lost Democratic support but still appears to take some anti-vax votes from Donald Trump.
- She's moved abortion to the top-of-issue list to the disadvantage of Republicans.
- Her honeymoon reflecting the unity and energy which started with the announcement, is likely to culminate after the August 22 Democratic Convention with a polling bounce. Obviously, Republicans are working hard to suppress and dissipate it.
- The change of Democratic nominees has reframed the election from one the Democrats were losing possibly by a trifecta to a much closer race, including for control of the House and Senate.
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