Twotwofourtysix, CC0, via Wikimedia CommonsThe latest ratings of US House elections nationally by Virginia professor Larry Sabato's Center for Politics (Crystal Ball) shifted Rep. Yadira Caraveo in the 8th CD from Lean Democrat to the Toss-Up category.
The district's close balance in the 2020 Presidential election (4.5 points for Biden) and the narrow win in her 2022 inaugural run (1,642 fifth closest in county) were factors leading to the relabeling. Also, Republicans managed to avoid an election denial candidate in a primary and have a new state legislator, Gabe Evans.
The Crystal Ball also shifted the 3 CD from Lean to Likely to Republican. Jeff Hurd, the Republican nominee's primary win (41%) and the District's history of Republican partisan advantage in Presidential elections gave Hurd the lead against the hard campaigning, well-funded Adam Frisch.
Although most Republicans are glad Lauren Boebert left the 3 CD, Republicans in the 4th CD appear to accept her. She has been moved from Likely to a Safe Republican. The Democratic candidate is not well funded or known.
| Sabato's Crystal Ball Colorado Congressional Seat Shifts |
||
| District | Candidate | Shift |
|---|---|---|
| 3 CD | Hurd vs Frisch | Lean to Likely Republican |
| 4 CD | Boebert vs Calvarese | Likely to Safe Republican |
| 8 CD | Caraveo vs Evans | Lean Democrat to Toss-up |
| Source: Ciruli Associates 2024 | ||
Overall, Sabato's group believed control of the US House is close with a slight Republican advantage if they win the Presidential race.
RELATED:
Colorado Election Scan on Super Tuesday March 18, 2024
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