Vice President, Kamala Harris and Former President, Donald TrumpPhotos: Grace Widyatmadja/NPR; Stephen Maturen/Getty Images
The election has more twists and turns than Independence Pass. But polling at the national and state level has never been more influential. My website, Ciruli.com, the Buzz, has been tracking the presidential polling since January. It was clear that Joe Biden was in serious trouble, losing the popular vote closely and most battleground states. It was worse after the June 27 debate.
It is also now clear that the polling, using the same methodologies and pollsters, have seen a Democratic revival. The new Harris/Walz ticket is ahead of Trump/Vance if only a point or two, in both the popular and a majority of battleground states. The projection of the electoral vote has also shifted to favor the Democrats, although both candidates are well short of the 270 needed to win. Linked are the 2024 blogs on election polls and the electoral votes’ estimates since July. Also, the UC Denver School of Public Affairs panels are linked.
Updates will be posted as I begin to present at election panels hosted by CU Denver and other venues.
POLLS:
Harris Takes the Lead 8/29/24
Harris Takes Over – Close Race 8/6/24
Biden Faces the End 7/22/24
Post-Debate Biden Drops - Loses Battleground States 7/16/24
Trump Confident, Dems Stressed 5/15/24
One Point Presidential Race 4/4/24
Biden Narrows Gap 2/27/24
Biden Loses Presidential Election Today. Colorado Win Likely Cut in Half 2/14/24
Republican Nomination Race is About to Begin or Is it Over? 1/3/24
ELECTORAL COUNT:
Reversal: Democrats Ahead in Electoral Vote 8/28/24
Democrats Go into Convention in Big Hole 7/23/24
CU DENVER PANELS:
The Rush to November 5 Begins 8/28/24
Election 2024 8/27/24
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