Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz on stage during a campaign event on August 6, 2024 in Philadelphia. Photo: Andrew Harnik/Getty ImagesIn an extraordinary turnaround, Kamala Harris has surged into a close lead over Donald Trump in slightly over 30 days after becoming the presumptive Democratic nominee. President Joe Biden was behind two points on the date he left the race, July 21. In the month, Harris has picked a vice-president and delivered a well-regarded acceptance speech at a national convention with 26 million viewers. On August 29, she held a 2 point lead in the RCP average and 3 points in 538 (ABC News). Harris and Trump now split the battleground states, with Harris ahead in 2, Trump 3, and 2 tied. The aggregate battleground vote is tied at 47 percent each.
Robert Kennedy Jr. dropped his failed campaign effort and endorsed Trump on Friday, August 23. Prior to RFK Jr.'s switch, Harris was beating Trump by two points in 5 party tests including Kennedy. The effect of Kennedy and the Democratic convention bump is just beginning to be polled and assessed.
Presidential Polls
Below is a polling average drawn from RealClearPolitics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website, Gallup, and other credible polls.
The campaign has only about two months left, with some early voting starting in October. A debate is tentatively scheduled September 10 and Harris must deal with a press corps hungry for interviews but Democrats clearly have momentum and a fresh enthusiasm.
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Joy vs Dour & Sour
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