Does Independent Candidate Complicate the Senate Race?

Dr. Steve Shogan
Photo: Denver Post

Dr. Steve Shogan, a mostly left leaning Denver-based doctor, has announced an independent candidacy for Mark Udall’s U.S. Senate seat.

Does the increase in independent-minded voters provide an opportunity for Dr. Shogan? An interesting test in Colorado.

Examining Shogan’s background and issue positions suggest he’s most likely to take votes from Udall. Shogan was a Democrat and generally holds Democratic social views and, although he’s critical of Obamacare, he advocates even more government involvement through a single-payer system.

Some questions concerning his viability as a third-party candidate are:

• Will he be able to resist Democratic efforts to get him out of the race?
• Are there undecided, independent and weakly committed voters ready to shift to a new candidate with Shogan’s credentials and positions?
• This could be a $50 million race. Is he a player at that level?

Lightening could strike and Dr. Shogan could be a viable independent candidate. There are and have been several in the U.S. Senate (two there now), but it’s more likely this could end up a “vanity” candidacy, possibly harmful to Udall, but not a contender.

As I told Channel 9:

“If you said John Elway was getting in, I’d be impressed,” said 9NEWS political analyst Floyd Ciruli. “A nice neurosurgeon may have a harder time getting his name out there.”

It’s a job that will require money. Hoover tells 9NEWS Shogan has 10 fundraising events scheduled following his announcement, but political observers say it will be a very heavy lift. A couple million dollars have already been spent on advertising in the race with heavy involvement from issue advocacy groups.

“If he is willing to spend obscene amount of money he might find some running room,” Ciruli said. “He would need $20 million to really be a contender, to be somebody that would really grab people’s attention.”

Adding to the challenge, polls show a tight race with few people unsure of who they plan to vote for. “Polls show 90 percent of the public has been committed for the last couple of months, which is amazing,” Ciruli said. Those polls have Udall and Gardner in a statistical tie.