Republican Presidential Race Wide Open

The Democrats have made a presidential choice – Hillary Clinton by 69 percent, all others split the remainder (Fox, April 2014). But, the Republican race is wide open, with five candidates: Governors Christie and Bush, Senator Paul, Congressman Ryan and former Governor Huckabee in low double-digits and a crowd closely following.

If the group is broken into the main categories of the party, the results look as follows. Of course, most of the candidates and the categories overlap.

The Republican race not only doesn’t have a frontrunner, but the main faction, the Tea Party, has only 37 percent of the rank and file Republican vote. No Tea Party identified candidate has more than 10 percent and most of the Tea Party candidates also claim establishment and/or evangelical credentials. Neither the usually dominant establishment (nominating Dole, Bush, McCain, Romney since 1996) nor the party’s potent Tea Party faction have a commanding position.

The latest Quinnipiac Colorado poll shows Clinton beats or ties the four candidates tested, except Ron Paul who beats Clinton by five points and leads the field.

Paul’s strength comes from being the only Republican who wins voters under 30 years old against Clinton and holds an 11-point lead among independent voters.