In California Sur a Quarter Century of Growth Stops

Session 2: Changing Demographics and Attitudes in Southern California
Left to right: Jon Gould (UC Irvine), John Nienstedt (Competitive Edge Research and Communication), Gaby Gonzalez (Policy and Innovation Center), Liz Hamel (KFF), Floyd Ciruli (Ciruli Associates). Photo courtesy of papor.org

Orange and San Diego counties, after growing by more than 50 percent since 2000, adding 1 million people each, stopped in 2020, the year of the pandemic. And growth has not resumed. At the annual conference of PAPOR, a panel described the political demographics and attitudes of Orange and San Diego counties. A comparison follows:

Orange and San Diego counties anchor California in the south. Each has about 3 million residents, but they have unique histories and many distinguishing characteristics. Importantly, they have different influential neighbors. Orange is south of LA, much like a sprawling suburb, and San Diego is north of Mexico, with a dominate municipality. Both counties have been in political transition in this quarter century but at different paces, reflecting their histories, cultures and demographics.

• Nearly equal populations of 3 million. After steady, sometimes feverish growth, it stopped after 2020 (pandemic). Similar to state, both counties lost population last four years.
• The White population in both counties at or about 50% dropped to 38% in OC in 2020 and 43% in SD. The second largest group in each county was Hispanic (Latino) with about a third of the population. Growth in OC went from 31% to 34% in 20 years but the Asian population zoomed from 13.7 in 2000 to 22% in 2020. In SD, Asian group grew from 9% in 2000 to 12% in 2020.
• Both counties have moved Democratic in the last quarter century with President Bush winning in 2000 but Kamala Harris and Democrats in 2024. The shift took place in 2008 with President Obama in San Diego and 2016 in Orange County with Hilary Clinton. Harris barely won OC (3%) in 2020, which remains competitive but she won with 17% in San Diego.
• Democrats have gained power in local offices in both counties and now have a majority of the board of supervisors. Republicans remain more numerous and officeholders more influential in OC.
• Outside of partisanship, both counties show independence going right and left on ballot issues. In 2024 Prop 36 on crime control won overwhelmingly in both counties – 75% OC / 65% in SD. Housing bonds, minimum wage and rent control lost in both counties. Several liberal positions such as marriage rights and school board passed.

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Political Change in California Sur: PAPOR Conference June 27, 2025
PAPOR - Political and Demographic Change in Orange/San Diego Counties August 11, 2025