Early Voting Begins – Harris Ahead in Popular Vote

Steve Kornacki explains why Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are focused on Pennsylvania

As early voting begins in Colorado and many states, the race remains too close to call – the same as it was on September 20 when this analysis was last published. The election remains polarized into two nearly equal camps and opinions are being rigidly maintained in spite of hundreds of millions in advertising and dozens of candidate events weekly.

Kamala Harris is winning the popular vote by 2 percent, similar to the Democratic wins in the last two elections. But the latest polls from the seven battleground states are within the margin of error and frequently shift with each new poll. As of today, Harris is ahead in 3 states, Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada, and tied in Pennsylvania. Donald Trump is ahead in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.

Democrats appear to be losing the U.S. Senate due to the expected loss of West Virginia and being behind in Montana. Analysts believe control of the House is a toss-up but that Democrats have slight advantage.

Presidential Polls
Above are polling averages drawn from RealClearPolitics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website, Gallup, and other credible polls.

WATCH:
Kornacki on Meet the Press Oct 6, 2024

RELATED:
Harris Wins the Debate But the Race is Close Sept 20, 2024