2014 is 2010 “Light”

Although it appears Republicans have the advantage in terms of the structure of the 2014 contest; i.e., Democrats have more Senate incumbents in states Romney won and they have the hostility of voters unhappy with the economy, President Obama’s job performance and the ACA, the advantage appears less than 2010 when Republicans retook the House.

One measure of election performance is the voters’ judgment of the favorability of the party brand. Fox News published a recent history of voters rating the two parties’ favorability. In the last poll they conducted before the respective midterm and general elections since 2006, the party that won the House had an advance indicator as to what would happen.

Today, the Democrats have a 2-point deficit in their brand (44% to 46%), which is well below their 8-point deficit in 2010 nor the massive deficit Republicans had in brand in 2006 (13 points). It confirms that whatever Republican structural advantage exists in 2014, as of April, other indicators are less conclusive.