In a last blog post before election day (https://fciruli.blogspot.com/2024/11/race-tight- harris-now-behind.html), the weekend polls showed Kamala Harris lost the lead she held since early September in popular vote and was behind by a fraction in most of the battleground states to Donald Trump. I said if the RCP aggregate of polls is accurate, she could lose both the popular and electoral vote to Trump. He won the popular vote by 2 points and swept all battleground states. His 312 electoral votes exceed his 2016 win (304) and Biden’s in 2020 (306).
Although the polling missed the Red Wave, it did perceive the direction of the race had shifted against Harris. She never translated her popular support to the battleground states, where she struggled for a consistent lead after her nomination. Polling is still dealing with a specific Trump voter problem. They are less inclined to participate in polls and more obscure in the voting environment.
Presidential Pollss
Above are polling averages drawn from RealClearPolitics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website, Gallup, and other credible polls.
KOA – Election Night Analyses
Floyd Ciruli joined the KOA news and commentary team November 5 election night to report results, analyze the trends, and highlight the winners and losers.
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