Race Tight. Harris Now Behind.

Election workers sort ballots at the Maricopa County Tabulation and Election Center on Nov. 9, 2022, in Phoenix. Photo by John Moore | Getty Images

In a last snapshot before election day, Kamala Harris lost the lead (October 26, 2024) she held since early September in popular vote and is now behind by a fraction in most of the battleground states to Donald Trump. If the RCP aggregate of polls is accurate, she could lose both the popular and electoral vote to Trump. Other aggregators, such as 538 have Harris up one or two points. And most observers point out, she could win, depending on many factors, especially turnout and late deciders.

I will be making several presentations as to what caused the shift, when will the election be decided and what’s next for American politics and policy.

Presidential Polls
Above are polling averages drawn from RealClearPolitics (RCP) with regular comparisons to FiveThirtyEight (ABC News) website, Gallup, and other credible polls.