Electoral Vote Is Calcified

Crystal Ball Electoral College rating Updated: Sept. 25, 2024

The electoral vote count of the leading vote forecaster has not changed in the last 30 days. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball published on August 20 showed that the distribution of electoral votes had shifted when Joe Biden was the nominee (Democrats losing 196 to 312) to a slight Kamala Harris advantage (Democrats winning 226 to 219) with 93 toss-up electoral votes in 7 states. Their latest map (see above) published on September 25 has the same electoral count and toss-up states. The Cook Political Report, another forecasting service, agrees.

In the last two presidential elections the Democrats have won the popular vote by substantial margins but with close electoral counts. Results were reversed with Donald Trump winning in 2016 by 77 electors and Biden in 2020 by 74. As of today it appears a close election with very little movement since early September.

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