A new poll confirms the observation of most political analysts, Yadira Caraveo’s Democratic House seat is in danger of loss to Republican Gabe Evans. The poll shows a 44% to 44% split, with independent voters preferring Evans by 43% to 35%. She wins Hispanic voters by 9 points, 42% to 33%.
The seat had been shifted to toss-up from “lean” Democrat by the Crystal Ball rating service in early August.
The district was designed in the 2020 redistricting to be competitive and Caraveo barely won her 2022 inaugural election. She failed to establish much of a political presence the last two years and lags in favorability in the poll 49% for Evans, a one term state legislator, to 43% for her.
The poll was published by Fox 31 / Channel 2/ Emerson College (n 525 ± 42 points)
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Caraveo Moved to Toss-Up Aug 8 2024
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