Reversal: Democrats Ahead in Electoral Vote

Vice President Harris and Democrats are now ahead of former President Donald Trump and Republicans 226 to 219 electoral votes with 93 rated toss-up. In Sabato's Crystal Ball latest analysis (August 20, 2024), the toss-up states are Wisconsin (10), Michigan (15), Pennsylvania (19), Georgia (18), Nevada (8), Arizona (11) and North Carolina (16). The race remains close but Harris has rapidly and significantly changed the electoral map. Polling can barely stay abreast with the frequent changes in the election environment. RealClearPolitics analysis still has Trump ahead 219 to 208 for Harris with 111 electoral votes to be decided.

Crystal Ball Electoral College rating

Sabato records a major reversal from 312 electoral votes in mid-July for Trump to 219 at the end of August, while Democrats climbed from 196 to 226. Both parties are short of the 270 needed to win but the Democrats now have a much better prospect. Sabato's next electoral map will be post-convention and could present more good news for the Democrats.

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