LA Mayor’s Race: Does Bass Have Advantage in Runoff?

On Wednesday, about half the Los Angeles mayor’s vote was reported (a very slow system) and 317,000 votes were counted, with a 42 percent to 37 percent split between Rick Caruso and Karen Bass. Hence, the final vote should be near 600,000, up from 379,000 in 2013 (20% turnout) and 419,000 (23%)  in 2017 (Eric Garcetti’s primary election).

With the mayor’s race runoff on election day, November 8, 20022, does Democratic Congressperson Bass have the advantage in the expected higher Democratic turnout vote from 600,000 in the primary to a likely more than 1.2 million votes, or double the primary? In gubernatorial and presidential races, it normally votes 70 percent for the Democrat.

But, both candidates are dealing with some weaknesses. Polls show Caruso lost the women voters, did better with men. Every picture on election night had his wife if it. Expect to see more of Tina. The November election will likely see a “shellacking” of Democrats – Clinton lost 53 House seats (1994), W. Bush 32 (2006), Obama 64 the “shellacking” (2010) and Trump 41 (2018). Bass represents the Washington establishment as a congressperson and will be dealing with an electorate very unhappy with D.C.

Rick Caruso and wife Tina share a laugh on election night 
at the Grove, June 7, 2022 | Wally Skalij/Los Angeles Times

Karen Bass speaks at her election night party, 
June 7, 2022 | Christina House/Los Angeles Times