In July, it became obvious to election observers that the California recall primary on September 14, with mail ballots going out starting on August 16, was closer than earlier polls indicated, and as I blogged on July 26, Governor Gavin Newsom’s “primary concern is to get his voters to return ballots.” The blog reported on a poll conducted on July 20 that had “yes” or “no” on the recall within 5 points (43% yes to 48% no). It was just confirmed by a UC Berkeley–LA Times poll that shows the race with 15 to 3 points depending on who turns out, dramatically highlighting Newsom’s voter turnout challenge. Republicans are more attuned to the election and have a higher turnout history in special elections.
Viewing the Berkeley-LA Times data makes clear that Newsom and the Democrats have only a slight majority supporting retention today – 50 percent in both turnout scenarios. The core recall vote of 36 percent is the base Republican-leaning votes in California (Donald Trump got 34%, Newsom’s opponent in 2018 got 38%).
Observers on both sides cite the summer of discontent extending the public’s general unhappiness with politics and the state’s fate. The Delta variant, the mask restrictions, drought, wild fires and the growing sense that the California dream has ended with people, jobs and power moving not into the state, but out.
Newsom’s advantages are no opponents with name identification, a divided Republican Party between the establishment and Trump wing, he has millions to spend, and finally, Democrats realizing this won’t be a walk on the beach.
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