Is Newsom in Trouble?

California Gov. Gavin Newsom delivers his State of the State
address from  Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles California,
March 9, 2021 | Mark J. Terrill/AP

The conventional wisdom is that Governor Gavin Newsom’s recall had failed to attract sufficient support or even interest to remove him. He got an election date in mid-September assuming his popularity would be stronger than waiting longer, and importantly, he kept other Democrats off the ballot. In fact, the field has no one with any statewide popularity – Republican, independent or celebrity. Democrats had been able to label the recall a Republican-Trump strategy – deadly in a state with nearly two-to-one Democrat and Donald Trump lost by 29 points.

But a statewide poll from July 20 shows the recall has tightened from the mid-30 percent in earlier polls to 43 percent, with 48 percent against the recall in the new Emerson College/Nexstar Media poll.

None of the candidates on the recall ballot have significant support. Over half the electorate is undecided (53%), 16 percent list Larry Elder, a conservative radio host. Top Republicans John Cox and Kevin Faulconer received 6 percent each and reality TV start, Caitlyn Jenner, received 4 percent.

Newsom’s primary concern is to get his voters to return ballots.