Boebert – A Fluke or the Future?

Nick Riccardi in an AP story speculated on the possible takeover of even competitive congressional districts by the extreme wings of the respective parties. It was assumed the Marjorie Taylor-Greene’s would represent a safe district in which primaries are the entire battle. But Lauren Boebert’s district has a modest Republican edge in a state trending Democratic. It was last represented by a Democrat in 2010. And, a modest change due to redistricting could make it more competitive.

But the argument that the incumbency of Congressperson Tipton made the district safer for Republicans and that seniority is valuable had little sway with the Trump base in 2020. Boebert won the general election with the same margin in most counties as Trump – 51 percent.

My comment to Riccardi was that partisanship is so dominant today, even an extreme nominee is likely to receive the party vote, which in the Third Congressional District is enough.

“Are we so locked in, so partisan, that it overshadows everything, even in these close districts?” asked Floyd Ciruli, a veteran Colorado pollster. “Bringing out such controversial forces and taking out an incumbent were not dangerous, even in a district like that.”

Hence, my view is that with extreme polarization this may be the future of both parties. They can expect primary challenges from their respective wings in even “lean” districts.

Lauren Boebert (C) recites the Pledge of Allegiance with her mother, Shawn
Bentz (L), State Senator Ray Scott (C) and Senator Cory Gardner (R) during
 a get-out-the-vote-rally at Grand Junction Motor Speedway in Grand Junction,
 Nov. 2, 2020 | Barton Glasser, Special to The Colorado Sun

Reported in The Sun, Feb. 8, 2021:  A fluke or the future? Boebert shakes up Colorado district