Larimer County has been growing with younger, well-educated, environmentally-minded voters, often registering unaffiliated, but voting more liberal and more Democratic. An article by Jacy Marmaduke in the Fort Collins Coloradoan described the new political environment. Two Republican-held county commissioner seats are open with the possibility that an unpopular president could produce the 2018 effect when a long held county assessor’s seat shifted to the Democrats.
Senator Cory Gardner, who carried the county in 2014 by 539 votes, will need to hold any loss this year to a bare minimum. But with statewide polling showing him behind John Hickenlooper by 10 points, it’s not likely he’ll be close in the county.
My observation was:
Trump’s unpopularity in Colorado is the biggest obstacle Gardner faces for reelection, longtime political analyst Floyd Ciruli said. About 57% of Coloradans disapprove of Trump, according to the Colorado Sun’s average of 2020 polling. Recent polls project Trump will lose by upward of 10% here.
“I don’t think (Gardner) will do as poorly as the president, but it is almost inconceivable that he can overcome that deficit,” Ciruli said. “The president of the United States is just incredibly powerful in terms of shaping public opinion and voting in the party.”
Gardner has faced a conundrum throughout the campaign season, Ciruli said: He had to distance himself from Trump to gain votes without inspiring ire from the president or his “vindictive” base. That line has been historically difficult to walk, Ciruli said, recalling former Rep. Mike Coffman, who touted a relatively moderate record and still lost to Democratic Rep. Jason Crow as Denver’s suburban voters trended blue in 2018.
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| Sen. Cory Gardner | Photo: Colorado Sun |
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