Romanoff Versus Gardner. Who Wins?

If Andrew Romanoff wins the June 30 Colorado Democratic Senate primary, the assumptions concerning the race will change.

Very likely the national political analysts who rate election outcomes would reexamine the “likely Democrat” label given the race in the last few months and shift the state to toss-up or competitive (Cook Report currently has seat as “toss-up”). Their assessments had been based on John Hickenlooper being the nominee. They normally cite his money, edge in the polls, having won statewide twice before, moderate reputation, and Donald Trump as head of the Republican ticket.

• Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball has Colorado “likely Democrat” (4-30-20)
• Stuart Rothenberg has Gardner “heavy underdog (4-20-20)
• Cook Political Report – “toss-up” (6-18-20)

Andrew Romanoff | CBS photo

All three prognosticators believe Democrats could capture control of the Senate, making winning Colorado a critical priority.

Some Democrats argue that nearly anyone could beat Cory Gardner this year with Colorado’s new electorate and Trump’s collapsing campaign. The pros don’t agree. They will cite Romanoff’s lack of money, poor election track record and “very liberal” positions adopted in the primary, some of them not endorsed by Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren in their nomination fight. Romanoff would no doubt raise liberal money and get endorsements, but he will have trouble attracting money from much of the moderate Democratic establishment (who have heavily contributed to Hickenlooper), both because they don’t like many of his positions and they believe he will be an easy target.

He will be the candidate the Republicans hope for. They have been campaigning against “socialism” and “extremism” for more than a year.