Dow Fires Past 29000, Yet Trump Struggles

The Dow is up more than 10000 points, or 56 percent since November 8, 2016 Election Day. It surged through the 29000 level to close January 15 at 29030 after a record 22 percent increase in 2019. And, the Dow’s 2019 gain lagged the broader S&P index with a 29 percent growth and the market leader, tech-heavy NASDAQ, up 35 percent.

Yet, Donald Trump struggles for re-election. Although his economic performance rating is a high 54 percent approval, his overall job approval seldom gets above 44 percent, an “iffy” position for re-election. The 10-point plus difference is the swing that makes the election unpredictable. Many of the swing voters are moderate Democrats and independents who find Trump’s personal style, tone and ethics a problem.

Also, the expansion has slowed (GDP 1.7) and is uneven. Manufacturing and business investments are underperforming. And, of course, Democrats argue that the economy and Trump’s policies are unfair to a majority of the public and are highly skewed to the rich. Today, the intense polarization undermines the credit politicians get for the economy. Finally, after a long expansion, voters often shift attention from the economy onto other issues, most of which primarily help Trump with his base, not swing voters.