Kavanaugh Is Midterm Problem

Public opinion is not especially important for selection of Supreme Court judges. But September 2018 and the Brett Kavanaugh confirmation is not a normal confirmation. The process is taking place six weeks before the midterm elections in the middle of the intense #MeToo movement and with Donald Trump as president.

Generally, nominees are not well-known and have low negative ratings with public opinion, often based on partisanship and high “don’t know” responses. Kavanaugh began the process with a low positive rating, and now has the highest negative since NBC/WSJ began polling nominees in 2005 (38%). Kavanaugh’s high negative rating increased 9 points since the controversy over sexual harassment charges began.

The bigger vulnerability for Republicans than losing the nomination, which they still appear confident to get, is being hurt in the November election. Kavanaugh’s negative rating among women (42%) is four points more negative than it is with the general public and support at 28 percent is 13 points lower than men. Forty-nine percent of college educated women oppose the nomination.

The last thing Republicans need is more fuel on the Democrats’ get-out-the-vote fire.

See:
The Atlantic; Brett Kavanaugh could make the midterms a landmark election for women