The Presidential Race Narrowed Twice and Now Widening

It will take about 46 percent of the total electorate to win the race for the White House, assuming third-party candidates win about 8 percent of the vote, leaving 92 percent to divide up. Currently, Hillary Clinton is holding about 49 percent and Donald Trump 42 percent.

On two occasions since the California primary made Clinton the presumptive nominee (Trump was considered the nominee when Ted Cruz dropped out after the Indiana primary), Trump was one or two points ahead or behind Clinton. The first time was at the conclusion of the two conventions on July 29 and the second was before the first debate.

Unfortunately for Trump, the Democrats had a good convention (they appeared unified, Republicans did not) and he attacked the Khan family, both of which put Clinton into the lead.

But by Labor Day, after weeks of negative press on e-mails and the Clinton Foundation, the race tightened, then the “basket of deplorables” and the 9-11 fainting incident led to an even worse September for Clinton. Also, Trump shook up his campaign and tried to stay on message. By the first debate, the race closed to a couple of points. But Trump failed to answer questions about temperament and what appears to be his final slide began.

Friday, October 7, offered a powerful blow to his image when the Entertainment Tonight tape of “locker room talk” broke. Trump’s slippage continued through the second debate on Sunday, October 9. On the eve of the final debate, he is in a deep hole.