Pollsters Present “Year of the Outsider”

Some of the West’s top pollsters gathered in San Francisco on a panel organized by Floyd Ciruli, director of the Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research at the University of Denver, titled the “Year of the Outsider.” The Pacific Chapter of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (PAPOR) annual conference brings together public opinion professionals in the West.

The group presented California, Washington State, Colorado and national data on the political outsider phenomena that is having so much impact on the 2016 presidential race.

Washington State’s best-known pollster Stuart Elway was joined by Mark Baldassare, who directs California’s leading polling research center, the Public Policy Institute of California. Jon Cohen, vice president of research for Palo Alto based SurveyMonkey, which is rapidly becoming a leading election research firm, presented the latest national data on the Republican presidential field. SurveyMonkey has most recently partnered with NBC News to provide post-debate polls on who won. Co-presenting with Jon was recent Crossley Center graduate, Kevin Stay, a new research associate of SurveyMonkey.

Colorado has a long history of liking candidates with outsider credentials. Ciruli spoke about that history and placed the phenomena in historical and public opinion context.

Panel – 2016: The Year of the Outsider

Chair: Floyd Ciruli, Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research
The History of Outsider Preference, Floyd Ciruli
The Summer of our Discontent, Stuart Elway, Elway Research
Californians’ Opinion of Political Outsiders, Mark Baldassare, Public Policy Institute of California
Trump’s Beguiling Ascent: What 50-State Polling Says About the Surprise GOP Frontrunner, Jon Cohen and Kevin Stay, SurveyMonkey