Democrats may only lose three or four U.S. Senate seats if they can continue to localize the races and run aggressive, well-funded campaigns. Kay Hagan is now ahead in North Carolina, a seat Republicans were hoping to capture, and Colorado’s Mark Udall had a beyond the margin of error lead in most polls (not in the recent Quinnipiac survey, but it has been criticized because of the size of the lead, 8 points, for Cory Gardner and some sample issues).
But, neither Hagan nor Udall can be comfortable due to President Obama’s low approval rating and the recent shift to the Republicans in the generic ballot test.
Poll after poll in senate races confirm the President is a burden to the re-elections of Democratic incumbents. Obama’s approval is not as low as President George W. Bush’s in 2006 and 2008 (disastrous years for Republican candidates), which is one reason it’s assumed 2014 will be “2010 light.”
The generic ballot test has also started to move toward Republicans since early September as the President was running to catch up to the ISIS threat. It now sits at four points to the red, which is less than 2010, but it is still an indicator that 2014 will be the year the Democrats’ brand won’t help. As of today, it’s not clear the negative national numbers will be enough for Democrats to lose six senate seats, but they are enough to make Democrats run scared.
No comments:
Post a Comment