Forecasting the U.S. Senate – Post-Labor Day

The New York Times forecasting unit, called The Upshot, gives Republicans a bare 51 percent advantage to win the six seats needed to take control of the U.S. Senate.

It had been more than 60-40 from mid-August to early September. But, as the forecast models have shifted from historic data (i.e., who won the state, Obama or Romney) to current polling, Democratic prospects have improved. Mark Udall is one of the Democratic incumbents who have moved from toss-up to likely winner in most forecasts. Each new reported public poll is increasing his odds of winning. He’s now 82 percent likely to win in the Upshot model. Although, they still have Udall on their competitive list.