Are Incumbents in Trouble?

In every recent election cycle it has appeared incumbent U.S. House members were in trouble and could be voted out of office simply because they were the current officeholder. It never happens, although there have been years when a few more incumbents lose primaries and general elections. But, it’s still a rare event.

The speculation has been stronger this year because incumbent approval and re-elect questions have been at historic lows. Also, the dislike of Washington D.C. in general and both parties is high, apparently mitigating the normal tendency in midterm elections to reign in the incumbent president’s party; i.e., in 2014 a vote against Obama and for Republicans, including incumbents.

In Colorado, do Republican Congressman Mike Coffman and Democrat Senator Mark Udall run with the 2014 incumbent disadvantage? Both of their opponents are making use of “it’s time for a change” and “Washington is the problem, not the solution” themes.

Some data:

• Congressional approval 14%. Lowest Gallup midterm measure since 1974. Lowest point of 9% reported after shutdown in November 2013.
• Disapprove own U.S. House representative – 51% (new record high) (ABC/Washington Post, 8-5-14)
• “Most members of congress should be re-elected (19%). 50% say re-elect own congressperson. The last time this low was 1994 and 2010 when the House changed hands (Gallup, 8-18-14)
• Favor parties: Democrats – 49%, Republicans – 35% (ABC/Washington Post, 8-5-14). Last low point for Republicans in favorability was the shutdown in October 2013 (32%) and impeaching Clinton in December 1998 (31%).