Good News for Udall, Bad for Hickenlooper

A new panel survey technique from YouGov with the New York Times and CBS has released results of a non-partisan, non-probability, but massive 100,000 respondent poll on the U.S. Senate and governor’s races.

YouGov uses large panels of subjects selected by a non-probability technique (it’s a lot cheaper), but they weigh the data according to the U.S. Census Bureau and some assumptions about partisan turnout. There is a considerable argument about the validity of non-probability panels, but the data was published in the 2012 presidential election and compared well with published non-partisan surveys and the election’s final results.

Although they show a 70 percent chance the Republicans will win the Senate, similar to the well-known New York Times forecasting model (60%), it shows Senator Mark Udall winning by 4 points over Congressman Cory Gardner, similar to the recent NBC/Marist polls (Udall up by 7), but different than PPP and Quinnipiac surveys showing the race within 2 points and Udall losing in one.

This survey shows Governor John Hickenlooper tied with Bob Beauprez, similar to several recent polls.