Colorado Senate Race Moves Up in Competition

Colorado has been moved up two spots in the latest National Journal ranking of sixteen competitive U.S. Senate races. The Journal predicts a 5- to 10-seat win for Republicans. They need six to take control of the Senate. The Udall vs. Gardner race is now listed 9^th, up from 11^th, largely based on the equal flow of advertising dollars, recent polls and the fracking debate. The Republican primary just helped Cory Gardner by handing off the gubernatorial nomination to establishment representative, Bob Beauprez, with a reasonably unified party.

Democrats are not certain to lose six seats however. Early polling from Arkansas, Louisiana and North Carolina, for example, show endangered Democrats more than holding their positions.

Although races can still be decided in the last few weeks (Bennet pulling out a 2010 late win over Buck), high-profile senate races are increasingly decided before Labor Day. If a challenger is viable on Labor Day (i.e., a net positive favorability rating), the incumbent is in serious trouble, which is why there is so much early negative advertising.