National Pollsters See Glimmer of Hope for Democrats

At a recent conference of national pollsters, several, including Frank Newport of Gallup and a leading Democratic pollster, Celinda Lake, pointed to factors they thought might mitigate the broadly perceived difficulties facing Democrats in November.

Gallup surveys point to President Obama’s mild recovery in approval since the first of the year. Newport compares George W. Bush at this time in the 2006 election and Obama, which shows Bush heading down from 42 percent to 37 percent on Election Day, whereas since December 2013 Obama has moved up to 44 percent from 40 percent. Not much in absolute terms, but a much more positive direction.

Ms. Lake cited the closeness of generic ballot test and the poor image of the Republican Party as a couple of factors she believes will reduce any negative impact of the year; hence, Democrats running strong, well-funded candidates can hold and even pick up seats. She is active in Kentucky where Mitch McConnell is threatened.