Wave or No Wave Election

A Washington consensus is building that Republicans will add seats in the House and win six seats and a majority in the Senate. But, recent elections have shown that local circumstances, namely flawed Republican candidates, have frustrated previous predictions of Republican control of the senate. However, this year, Republican pragmatists appear to be in ascendance.

Not every non-presidential election year is a wave election. There have been four nationalized or wave elections in the last 40 years, and two of those have been in the last decade.

The Nixon resignation launched the 1974 Democratic sweep, which brought in Watergate babies, last two of whom retired this year, California’s Henry Waxman and George Miller. Newt Gingrich and the Contract with America led the way to the Republicans retaking the House after a 40-year absence. Finally, in the last decade, the House has changed hands twice – once putting Nancy Pelosi in the Speaker Chair and four short years later replacing her with John Boehner.

 

A host of metrics appear to be suggesting this election could be highly impacted by national factors and, as of now, the wave favors the Republicans:

• Country is on wrong track – 62%
• Presidential approval 43%, disapproval 53%
• Generic ballot test – 2 points Democrats (tighter if likely voters)
• Obama’s job performance on economy – 39%
• Obama’s job performance on foreign policy – 36%
• Approve ACA – 41%; it’s going well – 27%
• Enthusiastic to vote in midterm: Republicans – 70%, Democrats – 58% 

Source: Real Clear Politics 2014; CBS News 2014

The Denver Post Perspective section opined on variables influencing the midterm elections Sunday, March 30:

“Since the first stimulus package in 2009, most voters think that neither party has been doing particularly well on economic issues,” said Floyd Ciruli, a Denver-based political analyst.

Ciruli expects that this year, maybe even more than usual, the state’s midterm elections will be a referendum on the presidency. Obama’s approval ratings continue to plummet: In 2013, on average only 42.3 percent of Coloradans thought the president was doing a good job, considerably lower than the nation’s 46.5 percent average, according to Gallup polls.

“The real issue is: Will Obama and Washington hurt state Democrats?” Ciruli asked.

See Washington Post: Republicans have a better than 80 percent chance of winning the Senate