Monday, February 10, 2014

Presidential Battleground State Gives Republican Candidates Edge

In an early test of presidential candidates, at least two leading Republican candidates best the Democratic frontrunner, Hillary Clinton, by 4 to 5 percentage points, more than 2.9 percentage point margin of error of the new Quinnipiac Colorado survey.

Paul Ryan is the strongest Republican candidate and Chris Christie is now the only one tested who is losing to Clinton. That is a drop of four points for Christie since a November poll, shortly after his heralded re-election in which he beat Clinton (46% Christie to 38% Clinton).

Clinton’s 43 percent against the field reflects an improvement from November when she was suffering from the full force of the Obamacare rollout chaos.

Examining the poll’s internals, Ryan’s strength relates to his stronger position with independent-labeled voters and among the Republican Party identifiers. Christie has problems with both Republican and independent voters, as does Ted Cruz.

The Quinnipiac poll did not test several potential Republican candidates who may be serious contenders in 2015 when the race heats up. Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin is the most talked about alternative to Governor Christie, followed by Governor John Kasich of Ohio. Marco Rubio, in spite of a difficult 2013, still has clout as a swing state Hispanic senator.

As of today, there is no Republican frontrunner, just more or less viable candidates.

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