Obama’s Approval Inverse of a Year Ago

It was the heady days of one year ago that President Obama, fresh from his 4-point national re-election victory and with a 12-point approval spread, issued an idealist and liberal inaugural speech and aggressive agenda in his State of the Union.

But in four months, Obama was in political trouble well before the failed rollout of the ACA in October. By the end of May, his disapproval exceeded approval, which got much worse by late November, reaching a 16-point negative spread at its worst (56% disapprove vs. 40% approve). Recognizing the new reality, the State of the Union is being right sized for the times.

This is the latest manifestation of second-term hubris. President Obama, much like President G.W. Bush fresh off his re-election, interpreted he had a mandate to get some long-term agenda items done: immigration reform, gun control, climate change, minimum wage increase and stepped-up spending for infrastructure and education. But by May, all these objectives were lost in a failed charm offensive with Congress while the budget sequester ended any chance for more spending. Since the depths of failed ACA rollout in November, there has been a modest recovery, but Obama is still in negative territory. In fact, along with Presidents Truman and Bush, Obama begins his sixth year in negative territory (Truman 36% approve, Bush 39%, Obama 43% – ABC/WSJ).

Strangely, at the very moment Obama will hail going it alone, Congress has a huge incentive to actually lower the temperature and accomplish something. Repeated polls now show voters are so disgusted, they may remove incumbents. That is getting their attention.