Are Incumbents in Trouble?

Recent polls register all-time lows in the percentage of Americans saying their own congressperson deserves re-election. With 90 percent and above re-election rates, even when dissatisfaction has been record-high, most congresspersons felt invulnerable to the public’s general unhappiness with Washington. Only great partisan tides coming out of Washington have swept out incumbents, and they tended to be in more competitive districts.

But the current dissatisfaction (see The Buzz: Anger with government top problem) appears enough to endanger even congresspersons in less competitive districts? Gallup reports that only 17 percent – a record-low – believe “most members deserve re-election” and only 46 percent believe their own congressperson “deserves re-election.” Other recent lows in re-election sentiment were in 2010, 2006 and 1994; in each case the control of the House of Representatives shifted.

But, since the unhappiness with Congress is bipartisan, it’s not clear which party might be advantaged at this point. ABC/Washington Post’s latest poll shows the Republican congressional brand with only a one-point edge. However, Democrats are losing every age group except the youngest, the least likely to turnout in a midterm election.