Polls and Amendment 66

There has been a dearth of public polls on Amendment 66, a sure sign that the proponents who have already raised $3 million are not interested in providing any of their internal polling for public consumption.

The only poll released came from the opposition. It shows that when the ballot-type questions offered the voter emphasis the tax, the proposition loses. That is not big news, but does indicate that the proponents are going to need their multi-million dollar persuasive campaign. If the issue is mostly framed as a tax increase, it will lose.

As of today, with no information provided as to what the proposal accomplishes or who supports it, Amendment 66 loses by about four percentage points when comparing strongest opposition with strongest support (28% oppose to 24% support).

If the dominate frame of the election is the income tax rate increase, by this poll, it would lose by at least 14 points. Needless to say, the proponents will want to change the frame. They will also want to shift the demographics of the vote. This survey had 39 percent Republicans and 34 percent Democrats – in the pollster’s view, an accurate snapshot of the 2013 electorate.

Republican total opposition was 68 percent and Democrat total support 63 percent. Needless to say, proponents will want more Democrats and younger voters (55% support) and Hispanics (53% support). Hence, increasing their support level and their participation rate would improve the initiative’s chances.

The group most in play are independents, who oppose the initiative in this initial test 35 percent to 44 percent, with a fifth undecided (21%) – good for opponents, but still a group that proponents could win (they would need 70% of undecided independents).

See Magellan Strategies poll