September – A Tough Republican Month

Hollywood Reporter

Republicans and Mitt Romney have been behind the entire month of September. With their convention providing little lift and the Democrats rolling out of their post-Labor Day event with a three-point bounce, the remaining month of campaigning has not changed the spread. Romney will go into the October 3rd debate substantially behind. Although the underdog can garner sympathy, there are high expectations for the challenger who needs to change a campaign’s direction.

Romney has had a series of September self-inflicted distractions that has kept him on the defensive and off message:

• A too quick reaction to the Libyan attack, causing consternation among the foreign policy establishment, including some Republicans. Subsequent events are justifying much of his basic criticism of Obama’s policy and especially his watchfulness in Libya.
• “Off the record” fundraising comments on the “47 percent” of Americans dependent on government that are easy to characterize as harsh and divisive.  It also started a long media cycle as to the accuracy and implications of the position.

But possibly the biggest pre-debate challenge is the tendency of hundreds of political analysts and news and commentary outlets to declare the race unwinnable and go into early post-mortems on what the campaign and candidate did wrong.

See Gallup:  Voters’ reaction to Romney’s “47%” comments tilts negative