There Will Be No Significant Third Party Candidate in 2012

With the collapse of America Elects, the only well-funded effort to mount a third party campaign in 2012 has ended.  Although upwards of 5 percent of the presidential vote will be syphoned off into a myriad of third parties, they will be only a footnote in the race.

Since 1980, only Ross Perot in his 1992 effort was able to draw a significant vote.  Colorado tends to provide third party candidates a higher percentage than they draw nationally.  It typically gives third party candidates 5 to 10 percent of the vote.

Of course, there are a few occasions, such as 2000, when the strategic placement of third party votes can make a difference in an election.  Had Ralph Nader’s votes in Florida gone to Al Gore, he would have been president.

Two new Colorado polls that show the election is tied or two points for Obama (Rasmussen 45% to 45% and Purple Strategies 48% to 46%).  Both polls show most voters making a choice between the major party candidates.  However, neither poll offered an unnamed choice or don’t know.

Of course, there is always the possibility of a Greek-style election.   If a substantial number of voters become disenchanted with both party candidates, they could fragment to obscure third parties.  That is a very remote possibility.  Lower turnout among the disenchanted is more likely.

Also see Rhodes Cook:  Americans elect to stay with two options