Congressional Republicans Ahead

If President Obama wins re-election, as of today, another divided government is likely.  Democrats are playing serious defense in congressional races, with the generic test showing them behind by 2 points.  Historically, to win seats they must be ahead by 4 to 6 points due to lagging behind Republicans in final turnout.

Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and her Democrats want to take back the House, but beyond massive fundraising, including a $2 million plus campaign contribution in Colorado media for the 3rd and 6th congressional district candidates, they haven’t been able to shift the overall direction of public opinion.

Democrats must win twenty-five seats from their base of 193 (they have 3 vacancies) – a mighty task in any year, but highly unlikely without a national trend helping.  Democrats are hoping that money, candidate recruitment and redistricting will make up for the lack of momentum.

Geographically, Democrats’ base in the Northeast grows, but the area has lost representatives, mostly to the overwhelmingly Republican South.  The West has a slight Democratic advantage due to the Pacific states.

American voters are disappointed in their federal government (only 15% approve of Congress) and they are doubtful this election will provide much new direction.  Hence, like the presidential race, neither party is gaining much advantage, and in a dead heat, Republicans hold their majority.