January Presidential Events

Although January’s four Republican presidential delegate events only represent 115 delegates to the Republican national convention (5% of 2,285 total delegates), it will winnow the field and, in fact, could decide the race.

John McCain’s victory in three primaries – New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida – with only about one-third of the vote gave him momentum into an early Super Tuesday in 2008 (February 7) to drive Mitt Romney out of the race shortly thereafter.

The participation in the first four events increases with each event and involves upward of 3 million voters, most of them participating in the Florida primary (Iowa more than 100,000 caucus attendees, 250,000 plus voters in New Hampshire, 500,000 in South Carolina and 2 million in Florida). 

The first western events will be the Nevada and Colorado caucuses on February 4 and 7, respectively.  Super Tuesday this year isn’t until March 6 and will involve fewer contests and delegates.

Could the Republican race be over quickly?  Yes, but the ubiquitous debates and changes in delegate selection rules and dates could lead to a lengthy contest between the Republican establishment and insurgent forces.