tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32296722332464864752024-03-18T10:56:57.982-06:00The BuzzUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger3261125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3229672233246486475.post-75085265804512573722024-03-18T10:56:00.000-06:002024-03-18T10:56:26.329-06:00Colorado Election Scan on Super TuesdayTwotwofourtysix, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons
The following are observations from Colorado opinion leaders after a series of discussions during the week of the Super Tuesday primary election (March 7):
1) Boebert:
She wins June 25 primary, Trump endorsement reinforces her advantage: money, multiple candidate field in strongly Trump leaning 4th CD. [Election now Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3229672233246486475.post-66835761769346757002024-03-14T11:05:00.005-06:002024-03-14T11:05:50.346-06:00Porter’s Other Problems: Money, a Celebrity Republican, Trump and Low TurnoutKatie Porter (D-CA) March 5, 2024. Photo by Jeff Gritchen, Orange County Register/SCNGKatie Porter’s problem was more than Adam Schiff’s campaign advertising. Her weak third place finish was foreshadowed, early in the race, with Adam Schiff’s superior fundraising and the entrance of a celebrity Republican last fall. But equally damaging was the emergence of Donald Trump and Joe Biden as two Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3229672233246486475.post-56591361205991466872024-03-13T13:16:00.002-06:002024-03-13T13:18:00.079-06:00Metro Denver Sales Tax Flattens Out
The seven county Denver Metro sales tax revenue increases of recent years (2020 was COVID year) have flattened out.
Population growth declined dramatically except for Douglas County over the last census period (2020 July to 2023 July) after more than a decade of steady increase. What other factors may be impacting regional sales tax revenue have not been reported yet? This may be a return to aUnknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3229672233246486475.post-77906386755246827972024-02-29T11:10:00.006-07:002024-03-13T13:13:02.761-06:00Bull Market Continues to RunThe year-end rally that produced a nearly 14 percent increase in the DOW has continued. And the DOW is still the laggard. Its 3.8 percent improvement in the first two months of the year was exceeded by the tech heavy NAS (6.6%, 43% in 2023) and the broader S&P (6.7%, 24% in 2023). All three indexes hit new highs this year.
Only a handful of stocks have been the primary movers in this market. The Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3229672233246486475.post-29515848104481982242024-02-27T11:53:00.000-07:002024-02-27T11:53:38.360-07:00Biden Narrows GapIn the last month, President Biden has narrowed his voter gap with former President Trump from 4 points to 2 points but he is still behind. (Down 48% to 44% on January 30 to 46% to 44% on February 27) As the month ended, Trump was able to revel in the South Carolina win and his designation as the presumptive nominee.
Also, national polls show Biden is still losing more support to third-party Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3229672233246486475.post-63856732136100915982024-02-26T11:39:00.004-07:002024-02-26T11:39:58.058-07:00Schiff, Garvey Have Lead as Porter StallsDemocratic U.S. Rep. Katie Porter and Republican Steve Garvey, Jan. 22, 2024.Photo by Damian Dovarganes, AP PhotoAfter two debates and millions in advertising spending, the California Senate race is taking final shape with Democratic Congressperson Adam Schiff in a growing lead at 28 percent followed by Republican Steve Garvey (22%). Now stalled in third place in the latest Emerson College poll Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3229672233246486475.post-41036684123167410442024-02-21T11:25:00.000-07:002024-02-21T11:25:21.352-07:00Biden’s Colorado Win Cut in HalfNationally, the presidential election is nearly tied (Biden 44% to Trump 45%) but two recent statewide Colorado surveys have President Joe Biden ahead of former President Donald Trump by about half (8 points) his 2020 election win of 14 points (55% to 42%). Trump is still toxic in the state with a negative 26 percent favorability rating compared to Biden’s negative 12 approval.
Generally it's Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3229672233246486475.post-65850908889900439082024-02-15T12:19:00.002-07:002024-02-19T10:10:13.427-07:00Five Biggest Takeaways from Media PanelThe Colorado Water Congress February 2 media panel analyzed the national elections’ impact in Colorado, the state’s four most contested Congressional Districts, and the opening turmoil in the state legislature.
Biggest Takeaways
National:
As of today, Biden would lose the national election and win Colorado by about half his 2020 victory – 14 points. His smaller margin would Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3229672233246486475.post-12218746858772491012024-02-14T12:22:00.004-07:002024-02-14T12:22:22.653-07:00Biden Loses Presidential Election Today. Colorado Win Likely Cut in HalfAs the general election begins, national polls show Donald Trump ahead of Joe Biden by 2 points, as of February 13. While a few polls have Biden in the lead, the average has been negative for weeks. If third party candidate are included, Biden drops further and is losing by 5 points.
The Presidential Polls
Below is a polling average drawn from RealClearPolitics (RCP) with regular comparisons to Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3229672233246486475.post-8400097088174046162024-02-09T12:41:00.000-07:002024-02-09T12:41:31.695-07:00People are Voting with Their Feet – California Could Lose Four Congressional SeatsView of Los Angeles from Griffith Park Observatory Trails Peak Nov. 14, 2022Photo by Jae C. Hong, AP PhotoThe latest census population estimates have been released and when analyzed with congressional reapportionment, there is a dramatic shift of residents from Blue to Red states. The Brennan Center for Justice analyzed the data and projected the potential congressional shifts if trends seen the Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3229672233246486475.post-48303231751878931632024-02-08T10:57:00.001-07:002024-02-08T10:57:25.458-07:00Pueblo Mayor Gradisar Crushed in Reelection BidHeather Graham | Photo: Jess Hazel / KRCCObservers thought first term incumbent Pueblo Mayor Nick Gradisar was in trouble in the January 23 mayors’ runoff election but were surprised by the 62 to 38 percent result. In the nominally nonpartisan election, Gradisar, a high-profile old-line Democrat, was beaten by a young, very vocal Republican, Heather Graham, who started her political journey angryUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3229672233246486475.post-47227906475518461452024-01-30T11:41:00.000-07:002024-01-30T11:41:33.108-07:00Colorado Surprise: Congressional BattlegroundTwotwofourtysix, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons
With no statewide race, a strong blue tint to the presidential race, and other than the endless Boebert drama, it appeared a slow year for Colorado political news. Then the State Supreme Court removed Donald Trump from the ballot (14th Amendment ban on insurrectionists) and the entire (3) Republican delegation retired or switched districts. Add the new Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3229672233246486475.post-29918224218123246152024-01-24T11:19:00.000-07:002024-01-24T11:19:17.160-07:00Will a Change of Scenery save Boebert?Rep. Lauren Boebert | Photo: Stephanie Scarbrough/APCan seat switcher Lauren Boebert be denied a primary win in Colorado’s 4th Congressional District? “Money and more name identity against multiple opponents is a strong position to be in. Also, she will get endorsements,” said Floyd Ciruli to E&E reporter Jennifer Yachnin from POLITICO.
Boebert, who announced she was ending her race for Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3229672233246486475.post-15996966990691235392024-01-23T10:50:00.002-07:002024-02-19T10:12:12.764-07:00Colorado Politics in an Unprecedented YearColorado’s top political reporters will preview the state’s biggest races, the top legislative issues, and Colorado’s political personalities: Governor Polis, Mayor Johnston, and Lauren Boebert on Feb. 2 at the Colorado Water Congress Conference.
Pollster Floyd Ciruli will moderate the panel and lead the discussion through the national landscape, Colorado’s now myriad of Congressional open seats Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3229672233246486475.post-79255091737462318182024-01-22T14:00:00.001-07:002024-01-22T14:00:00.127-07:00Post Iowa: Is Nomination Contest Over?Unless there is a major change between the January 15 Iowa Caucus and the March 5 Super Tuesday events, the race for the presidential nomination of the two major parties will be over. It may be over this week. Donald Trump’s Iowa landslide had the usual effect; also-ran candidates dropped out and candidates behind the frontrunner lacked momentum. If Trump is the nominee, does he help or hurt Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3229672233246486475.post-53333492485525295542024-01-22T11:53:00.002-07:002024-01-22T11:53:29.882-07:00KOA – Iowa and New HampshireInterview with KOA’s Marty Lenz and Jeana Gondek Wednesday after the Iowa caucus. We reviewed the results and what’s next in New Hampshire (January 23) and South Carolina (February 24).
Donald Trump met the expectation to win but turnout was low (not unexpected given the freeze) and half of the votes went to other candidate. But he did do better with suburban, upscale voters.
Nikki Haley Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3229672233246486475.post-28348506982301704862024-01-18T12:19:00.001-07:002024-01-22T10:50:10.330-07:00“Unprecedented” 2024 Race for President and Impact on ColoradoBy the time Colorado voters weigh in March 5, the race for president will be over, unless something “unprecedented” stops the Trump vs Biden trajectory.
A media panel will consider what that means for Colorado politics, for example, does it help or hurt Republican Congressional candidates? The Colorado Water Congress 2024 Convention will host the event February 2 at the Hyatt Denver/Aurora with Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3229672233246486475.post-81050379969579376412024-01-16T10:09:00.002-07:002024-01-16T10:11:55.896-07:00Generation Z and Millennials Rate Climate Change Top Environmental ProblemIn a 2023 Ciruli Associates survey in Orange County, wildfire was judged the top environmental threat by 51 percent of the public, with climate change third at 42 percent. Drought/water supply was rated second (49%). However, Gen Z and young Millennials (ages 18 to 29) were especially concerned about climate change (see table). More of them rated it the top county environmental threat (51%) Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3229672233246486475.post-52466065761521145892024-01-11T11:15:00.001-07:002024-01-11T11:15:34.662-07:00Media Panel on “Unprecedented” 2024Members of the Colorado House of Representatives | Photo by RJ Sangosti/The Denver PostThe year begins with a Congressional district swirl, the legislature is already tense, much of it intra party, and a presidential race is encouraging a third party – 2024 is “unprecedented.”
A media panel on Colorado politics will close out the Colorado Water Congress 2024 Convention. Pollster Floyd Ciruli willUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3229672233246486475.post-456697441923454132024-01-10T12:07:00.001-07:002024-01-11T11:07:56.871-07:00It’s Wide Open – All Three Republican Congresspersons Quit Their DistrictsTwotwofourtysix, CC0, via Wikimedia CommonsThe entire Colorado Republican Congressional delegation has abandoned their districts due to retirement and seat swapping. Three open seats with primaries will become Colorado’s dominant political story in 2024.
Out of Colorado’s eight Congressional districts, the Republicans have held three for more than a decade. The last Democrat in any of the three Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3229672233246486475.post-25932896735000567982024-01-09T11:33:00.002-07:002024-01-09T11:33:37.239-07:00Asian Americans Judge Wildfire & Climate Change Major Threats to Quality of LifeThe Asian Garden Mall in Westminster | Photo: Voice of OCIn a 2023 Ciruli Associates survey in Orange County, wildfire was judged the top environmental threat by 51 percent of the public, with climate change third at 42 percent. Drought/water supply was rated second (49%). Asian Americans were especially concerned about wildfire, and along with Hispanic citizens, judged climate change a greater Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3229672233246486475.post-54756948343132397222024-01-08T11:38:00.004-07:002024-01-08T11:38:39.565-07:00Boebert on the RunLauren Boebert | Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty ImagesLauren Boebert was going to lose. Her primary opponent (Hurd) was getting widespread support in money and local endorsements, many from her former supporters. Boebert’s Democratic opponent was beating her in polls and out-fundraising her by 3 to 1. (He now has a problem without her but money and Republican chaos may help.)
The national party Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3229672233246486475.post-7806061270903602362024-01-03T14:00:00.001-07:002024-01-03T14:00:00.156-07:00Year End Rally Continues?Will strong consumer spending and the end of interest rate increases lead to a soft landing? Will the end of year rally continue? Does the public feel any better about the economy in 2024? Does it help President Joe Biden?
These are the questions as the latest market rally crosses old boundaries into the New Year.
The last Dow high was before the pandemic on January 5, 2020, when it hit 36952. Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3229672233246486475.post-68548750936394059302024-01-03T11:11:00.001-07:002024-01-03T11:49:14.114-07:00Republican Nomination Race is About to Begin or Is It Over?Former President Donald Trump | AP Photo/Charlie NeibergallThe 2024 Republican Convention will be in Milwaukee in mid-July. You may remember 2020. The Convention wandered around North Carolina, Florida, and D.C. Donald Trump finally gave his acceptance speech on the South Lawn. This year, the nominee needs 1,234 to win and the process will begin on January 15 in Iowa, will it wrap up on March 5, Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3229672233246486475.post-61318362360788942892024-01-02T14:00:00.001-07:002024-01-02T14:00:00.136-07:00Porter Drops to Third, Republican Garvey in SecondPhoto: Steve GarveyTwo new end-of-year polls shook up the California U.S. Senate race putting Republican baseball legend Steve Garvey in second place before even starting a campaign and dropping liberal congressperson Katie Porter to third from a year-long first or second place. Adam Schiff is now in an increasing securing first place, two to one ahead of Porter and Lee, the far-left Berkeley Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0