The national popular vote as portrayed in polls only indicates the direction of the presidential race, currently steady with a Joe Biden lead, greater than Hillary Clinton’s four years ago, but not so great as to be comfortable. The real race is in a dozen battleground states, and these races tend to be within the margin of error, and the numbers have been mostly drifting closer the last 30 days.
Biden has had a consistent, albeit narrow, lead since mid-April in Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Donald Trump has mostly led in Georgia and Iowa. North Carolina has shifted back and forth – today, Biden is up by one. Florida has closed and is now two points.
At the moment, 50 days ahead of Election Day, the Blue Wall of North-Midwest states that so spectacularly failed in the 2016 contest appear back in place. But because so many of the battleground states have modest amounts of polling and the spreads are near or in the margin of error, a closer Electoral College result is still possible.