In November 2019, I prepared four scenarios for the November 2020 election with the “Status Quo,” that is, president reelected with the Senate remaining Republican and the House Democratic as most likely of the four (Four Scenarios: Republicans’ Best Endgame and Democrats’ Possible Sweep). The economy was booming, only six states were in play and Democrats in an ugly nomination fight.
The “Democratic Sweep” scenario has surged as a possibility due to polls showing Biden up 9 points 100 days before the election (see table below). Mostly importantly, he is ahead in most of the primary battleground states – Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Trump Behind Nine Points for Entire Month