Wednesday, November 1, 2017

Trump had a Better Week, But Approval is Still Low

Last week (pre indictment) was good for President Trump and House and Senate Republicans. They moved a budget, helping put in place the possibility of tax reform before the end of the year. Trump managed to not confuse or disrupt the presentation of the opioid initiative. The Russian investigation appeared to be stalling and the Democrats have become embroiled in their own Russian-related controversy. And, of course, the market keeps going up. Although Trump’s Republican critics (Flake, Corker) got a stage, they had no followers and are leaving the party to Trump.

But, in the midst of all the good news, Fox News came out with a poll that placed Trump’s approval rating at 38 percent, an all-time low for their poll. Although he still maintains Republican support (83%), they are only 35 percent of the electorate. Democrats’ 47 percent of voters only offered Trump 7 percent support. And, 30 percent of unaffiliated supported Trump.

 The Fox News results are near the RealClearPolitics average of 39.4 percent.

Although the 83 percent approval among Republicans is high, it represents decline from Republican support in most polls earlier in the year. A NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll out this week also has the President’s approval at 38 percent and Republicans at 81 percent.

But the most stunning number from the Fox News poll is the generic ballot test, which claims Republicans are now 15 points behind Democrats – 35 percent to 50 percent. Although the number is likely a bit of an outlier, the RealClearPolitics generic test has Democrats ahead by 10 points, reflecting a slow, but steady increase for Democrats this year.

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