The November 8 election results, when combined with exit polling, confirm that the President’s tone and language have become a liability that Democrats are exploiting. Trump’s presence so dominates current politics, Republicans can’t separate from him, and if they try, anger his base. Twelve months is a long time, but the Virginia governor’s race, in particular, highlighted that the historic metrics used to predict elections have not been suspended in the Trump era.
Trump is treating his approval rating like a reality show rating. Thirty percent of the cable TV market is high, but in a two-party political environment, it’s doom, which is what happened on Tuesday night.
One year ago, Trump won the presidency with 46 percent of the vote. He began his administration with 44 percent approval on January 20, 2017. Today, he is regularly in the mid-thirty percent range. Trump’s strategy of playing his base everyday has contracted his support. And even some of those voters are losing interest. He either changes strategy or takes the party into minority status 12 months from now.
Presidential Approval. His approval rating is at a record-low at 38 percent. Approval is the most potent metric, especial when the president is high profile with specific vulnerables – Trump by definition.
Congress. Congressional approval is also at historic lows – 14 percent, and when combined with a generic ballot indicator of metrics, 7 percent. The sense in 2018, as of today, looks like s worse election.
DOW. The President likes to cite the record-level DOW. It is his best number, but stock indexes can become volatile. The public is also capable of ignoring it when they see behavior or results (or a lack of) they don’t like.
House. The Democrats need 24 seats to take the House and put Nancy Pelosi in charge, including of investigations.
Senate. Democrats need three seats and have to hold ten that are vulnerable. It was not thought likely they could do both, but if Steve Bannon really wants to damage the party by attacks against incumbents, anything is possible.