The Bolivarian Revolution is collapsing and the army will soon have to decide: Does it continue to defend President Nicolás Maduro and fight the population or is change near – a coup or otherwise. The recent Latin American history of military officers escaping prosecution for crimes against their own population is not good.
The likelihood Maduro will die peacefully in the Presidential Palace or relaxing at a Venezuelan coastal resort seems remote.
Options for leaders who are about to leave office under duress:
Exile – Escape into exile with friends in Cuba or Nicaragua, sort of a reverse Batista and Somoza.
Arrest – Arrest like Slobodan Milošević or Hosni Mubarak.
Death – The streets can be dangerous as Muammar Gaddafi can attest. Nicolae Ceauşescu and Benito Mussolini were attempting escapes, but didn’t make it.
|Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro dances with first lady|
Cilia Flores during a rally to support the closing of the Colombian border,
in Caracas, Venezuela, Friday, Aug. 28, 2015 | Ariana Cubillos/AP