Monday, November 7, 2016

To Hit the 2012 Presidential Turnout, 800,000 More Ballots Need to Arrive

Either Colorado county clerks and election officials are about to be swamped with ballots or Colorado will have a weak turnout in 2016.

The presidential race in 2012 attracted 2.6 million voters and the growth in registration indicated that 2.8 million voters would be participating in 2016. Currently, there are 1.8 million votes cast, so unless a million people turn in ballots in the next 36 hours, this will be a modest turnout.

Statewide Democrats and Republicans have turned out in near equal numbers, with a slight Republican edge (Republicans just caught up this weekend). But people don’t necessarily vote their registration. Both major party presidential candidates attract votes from the opposing party. And third-party candidates get most of their votes from the major parties.

Democrats dominate the metro area due to margins in Boulder and Denver. Arapahoe and Jefferson simply don’t produce the Republican vote of the last century.

See Secretary of State report (11-7-16) here


Dave Barnes said...

My prediction.
450K show up in the counting tomorrow morning.

Dave Barnes said...

2.2M this morning - 1.825M yesterday (Monday) = 375K today
So, I was low by 75K