The key factors are:
- Presidential-level turnout in very competitive district will help Democrats. Expect at least 70,000 more voters over 2014. Barack Obama carried the district in 2012 by five points, and Democrats almost won it with an unknown candidate.
- Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton may produce fewer Republican ticket-splitters. If Clinton wins by as much or more than Obama in 2012, Coffman may be in deep trouble.
- This could be a good year for women candidates with Clinton carrying women by a wide margin (all women 53% to 34% Trump, white women 53% to 34% Trump, last Quinnipiac poll). Morgan Carroll is a high-profile woman politician who has won several local elections.
Denver Political Analyst Floyd Ciruli said social issues surrounding women have mostly been in the background of this year’s presidential and congressional campaigns, but that doesn’t mean Coffman isn’t feeling the backlash of running on the same ticket as Donald Trump.
“Hillary Clinton is winning women voters, including white women voters much more than normal,” Ciruli said. “Partially it’s a reflection of a woman running for president, but more, it’s a reflection of Trump’s problems.Coffman outpaces Carroll again in quarterly CD6 fundraising, holds big cash lead