- The polls show Clinton winning with Obama’s 2012 general election constituencies. But, she has low favorability, a lack of trust and is in a primary that shows a serious divide in the Democratic Party by age and ideological interests, with older, more moderate voters in her camp compared to younger and more liberal and independent voters in Bernie Sanders’.
- Mitt Romney won Ohio in his primary in 2012 with Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich, but lost the state by three points to Obama.
- Does Trump’s blue collar, downscale voters help make up for any loss he suffers from the Republican establishment and upscale voters? Does Clinton lose some of the young and minority Obama constituencies due to less passion and enthusiasm for her?
- Ohio is still a state suffering from a deindustrializing economy. Free trade is a major issue that Trump wins and Clinton is on the defense.